Step 3: Analyse the current situation
In Step 2 you established where to go (B), now, in Step 3 you will establish where you are leaving from (A). While this may seem contradictory, this order of working is crucial in a ToC Way of Thinking. The reason for working this way is because a ToC process is all about ‘thinking back’: you have a certain desired change you want to establish in mind, and now you are going to think about how you will get there. However, if you start at A, the present situation, you are thinking the other way around – you don’t start from where you want to go, but from where you are: therefore, in this way of thinking, it is much more tempting to think of activities and strategies you are already working with or that are easy to carry out – and you might not end up at B at all.
Step 3 is however bigger than just establishing A – the aim is also to analyse the system you are working in. Step 3 might include:
- Context analysis: Do a (literature) review on the social, political, economic, cultural situation (and any other dimensions that can be relevant for the programme/organisation). Example: Get an overview of what are the social norms related to child marriage in country X, what are the national and (if applicable) local laws on child marriage, how child marriage links to economic circumstances, how child marriage links to local cultural practices.
- Stakeholder and actor analysis: Get an overview of which stakeholders and actors are important when working on the desired change in a certain context; who will benefit from the desired change, who doesn’t, who is an ally, a key influencer, or an ‘enemy’? Example: Important actors and stakeholders when aiming to reduce child marriage in country X can be: young boys and girls, religious leaders, local and national policy makers, etc.
- Power dynamics: After having established who the important actors and stakeholders are, it is important to think about power dynamics. For example: is there high gender inequality, and how does this play out? How is the relation between young people and adults? Based on an analysis of power dynamics, you will be able to map out opportunities and challenges for the program. Simplified example: In country X, child marriage is strongly related to gender inequality (context analysis). Therefore, it is important to include men and boys in the programme and make them aware of the need for change (actor analysis). In addition, in country X, hierarchy comes with age: young people are often not taken seriously, which can be a challenge for the programme (power dynamics).
